interest rates

How to Shop for a Mortgage

After hitting record lows of 3.94% with 0.8 points the week of October 3, rates rose and have been hovering .25% to .375% higher than that.

A primary reason rates rose is market optimism about Eurozone leaders acting more forcefully to contain problems with insolvent member nations like Greece.  Eurozone issues are also a big reason rates got so low. Here's why:

If one or more Eurozone nations defaulted on their debts, European and U.S. banks would both suffer and it could lead to market turmoil on the level we saw in 2008. These concerns have driven global investors into safer bets like U.S. mortgage bonds, and rates fall when bond prices rise on this buying. This extreme volatility won’t stop as the Eurozone crisis plays out in the coming weeks and months. Rates trade in realtime and react to each little development. This is why it's rates will likely touch early-October lows again. But these lows come and go in minutes during specific trading intervals each trading day. And this kind of volatility drastically changes the way consumers should shop for a mortgage.  Because markets move up and down so fast right now, the rates you see in mainstream media* headlines are long gone by the time you can do anything about it.

So here’s how to shop for a mortgage in this new world. 

Shop For Loan Agents, Not Rates

Every consumer shops for mortgages and they should. But this is the critical distinction: you should be shopping for the best mortgage advisor. If you have that, you’ll get the best rate.

Here’s what happens when shoppers focused only on rate get quoted by a good loan agent: Loan agent quotes a rate only after they've analyzed the client's entire financial profile and analyzed their home’s value and condition—also known as pre-approving them. The client will either tire of the pre-approval analytics or be unhappy with the rate and go somewhere else. Then 80% of those cases come back to that loan agent because the competing rate quote was revealed to be incorrect when the other lender actually completed the client’s profile, or the home’s value/condition made the loan ineligible.

Mortgages are extremely competitive so rates and fees are generally the same with most (established, credible) lending firms.  What’s not the same lender to lender is the loan agent’s ability to: (1) advise properly, (2) analyze borrower and property profiles, and (3) close with no surprises. So shop to find the lender and loan agent you feel most confident can perform on these three things. Then work with that loan agent to pick a rate target you can’t or won’t go above, and give them a standing order to lock when they see it.

These guidelines are for refinancers. For homebuyers, you can’t lock a rate until you’re in contract to buy a home, but once you’re in contract, the same approach applies.

Rate Targeting

Their are two reasons for the pre-approval and rate targeting tactics discussed above:

(1) A rate quote that flies through the air means nothing. If a loan agent doesn’t issue you written terms after obtaining a full profile on you and your home, then you haven’t received a quote you can count on. 

(2) Rate lows are here and gone in minutes each trading day as mortgage bonds rise and fall on economic and technical trading signals. So if you don't first get pre-approved then set a rate target with a standing lock order, it's nearly impossible to hit the lows AND close with no surprises. 

Your loan agent also must be able to brief you daily or weekly on the market outlook, so if you're not sensing market competence from your agent, then keep shopping. A loan agent must have a strong read on what's impacting the rate market ups and downs to deliver you the best terms.   And for further reference about the loan process, here's another must-read:   Refi Roadmap: A Locked Rate Isn't A Closed Loan


*Mainstream media is almost always off the mark on rate data and commentary. Conversely, Mortgage News Daily strives to provide accurate and realistic rate data and commentary daily. Still, the premise of this piece is to explain what a mortgage consumer must do to manage extreme rate volatility. 

Julian Hebron is San Francisco branch manager and a top producer for RPM Mortgage and also runs mortgage and housing blog The Basis Point.

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Refi Roadmap: A Locked Rate Isn’t a Closed Loan

Rates are bouncing around near record lows set last October and consumers are looking to seize the opportunity. There's always a rush by consumers and loan agents to lock rates on dips, and that practice is all the more prevalent when extreme daily rate swings raise the sense of urgency.

But before you take the ready-fire-aim approach, remember the old saying: haste makes waste. Just because a rate is locked doesn't mean the loan will close. Here's how you can make sure that it does.

Let Lender Run Your Credit Score: Credit bureau scoring models know people shop for mortgages, so more than one mortgage-related credit run in a 30 day window won't reduce your score. Many critical loan approval factors are built into a credit report, so a lender should run your credit before the rate lock---even if you've worked with that lender before. Your rate is predicated on the credit score, and scores fluctuate daily as you use credit cards. Credit reports also show current balances on housing and all other debt, and these balances can impact qualifying. Credit reports also show any derogatory items on your credit history, including recent creditor mistakes you may not know about---these are common, and you're guilty of creditor mistakes until you prove you're innocent. Most lenders can help here, but it takes time so running credit should be first in the process.

Tell Lender About Job, Income, Asset Changes: If you're working with a lender for the first time, of course you must provide a full financial profile along with paystubs, tax returns and bank statements to back it up. But if you're working with a lender you've already worked with, never assume the documentation process is any different. Tell them everything when you talk about rates. Have you changed jobs or titles? Did you not get your bonus this year? Or was it bigger? Did you spend all your savings on a vacation or new car? Or will you in the next 60 days? All banks approve loans based on your debt-to-income ratio, and these factors all go into the calculation. The debt comes from the credit report and tax returns, and the income comes from paystubs, tax returns and bank statements.

Provide All Documentation Immediately: Provide this documentation right away even if a busy loan agent doesn't ask for it right away. The only exception to this rule is if the loan agent explicitly tells you they're doing a special refinance that doesn't require documentation because of some certain bank or government program.

Your Property Must Qualify: It's not enough for your credit score and debt-to-income ratio to qualify you. The property must also qualify. First, there must be enough equity in your home. Due to appraisal rules that prevent loan agents from pre-screening home values with appraisers, you usually have to pay for an appraisal up front to find out if you have sufficient equity. Second, the lender may require any big deferred maintenance issues like rotting wood, chipping paint, water damage or signs of water damage to be fixed before the loan closes---this is another timing issue that affects rate locks, so tell your lender if you have maintenance issues. And if you're in a condo, the condo building must have at least 51% owner-occupancy, a healthy budget with no (or at least well-explained and documented) special assessments, no litigation, no single owner holding more than 10% of units, and no more than 20% commercial space (or 25% for FHA).

Don't Forget Your Second Mortgage!: If you have a second mortgage, the second mortgage holder must agree to 'subordinate' behind a new first mortgage before the new mortgage can close. Whether or not the second mortgage is with the lender handling the refi, this subortination review and approval adds time to the process, sometimes weeks. As such, see 'Is Your Rate Locked For Long Enough' below. And zero-balance Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) follow these same rules. Even if there's a zero balance, the HELOC holder must approve the subordination.

Incorrect Loan Balances Blow Rate Locks:  Setting your refi loan amount is related to credit reports and the 'Cost Or No-Cost Refinance' section below. Your credit report will show your existing loan balance, and if you choose a refi with closing costs, you need to choose whether you're paying cash or adding costs to the new loan. If loan agents are locking rates too quickly, here are a couple ways it can blow up the process: (1) they forget to account for existing loan payments you just made or will make during the refi process, then they find out when you're signing final papers and you have to restart---which can blow your rate lock, or (2) they assume your property will appraise for a certain amount and if your value comes in low, they have to redo the loan amount---which can cause you to have a higher rate or fees, or you might have to pay your loan down in order to qualify.

Cost or No-Cost Refinance?: If you think rates will drop more, it's best to do a no-cost refinance so that you can refinance again later without having fees wash out the lower-rate benefit. If you think rates are as low as they can go, it's best to do a refinance with normal fees ($2500-4500 depending on your market) and perhaps 'buy your rate down' by paying tax deductible points (a 'point' is 1% of your loan amount). On a no-cost transaction, lenders offset your closing costs by offering a slightly higher rate, usually .125% to .25% higher.

What Is The Rate Outlook?: The U.S. and global economies are in uncharted territory given mass post-crisis government stimulus spending, so even the best market oracles don't know how rates will play. But here's what we do know: rates drop when mortgage backed securities (MBS) rise, and MBS are at all-time highs because they're one of the best safe havens for global investors rattled by market uncertainty. This is why rates are at record lows. MBS are priced for a very weak economic outlook. Any signs of improvement will cause MBS to sell and rates to rise.

Getting Rate Quotes: Even the best rate websites like MortgageNewsDaily aren't a substitute for a rate quote. As noted in the 'Cost or No-Cost' section, there's a direct relationship between rates and fees, so a rate quote will depend on your objectives and it can only be provided to you by a lender. Always insist on a full written term sheet displaying the rate, term (e.g., 30yr fixed), every single line item closing cost, total monthly costs including insurance and taxes, and total cash-to-close or cash-in-hand at closing. Lenders are required by Federal law to give you a three-page Good Faith Estimate but this form is a joke because it doesn't show you all of your line items, nor your total monthly cost, nor your cash-to-close. So make sure your lender shows this to you in some written format before you lock a rate.

Is Your Rate Locked For Long Enough?: Banks are busy during these rate dips and quoted rates can only be locked for a certain number of days. Ask your loan agent when they expect to close your loan, and if their quoted rate lock is enough time to get the deal done. Also refer back to the 'Provide All Documentation Immediately' section above, so you can hold the loan agent's feet to the fire if the delays are on their end and not yours.

Your Rate vs. Headline Rates: Every Thursday Freddie Mac publishes a rate survey from the previous week. This is source material for virtually all media. In addition to the fact that those rates are expired by the time you're reading about them, there's lots of fine print the headlines don't catch including: those rates are only for loans to $417k, single family homes only, owner-occupied only, and most of those loans have .7% to .8% in points (aka extra fees). Rates on this website are more timely, but again, a rate quote is based on your profile and your property profile so it must come from a lender to be specific.

What If Rates Drop More During Loan Process: When you lock a rate, you're setting that rate then the market will go up or down. It's very much like buying a stock. The main difference is that lenders have what they call 'renegotiation' policies if rates drop after you've locked. All renegotiation policies are similar in that rates have to drop significantly for you to be able to capture some of that drop after you've already locked a rate. Bottom line: renegotiations don't let you capture the entire gain because you've already made a commitment. So as an example, if you locked a rate at 4.75% and the quoted rate for that same unlocked loan a week later dropped to 4.5%, most lender renegotiation policies will give you half of the gain which would put you at 4.625%.

Julian Hebron is San Francisco branch manager and a top producer for RPM Mortgage and also runs mortgage and housing blog The Basis Point.

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Mortgage Rates: Regaining Some Ground

Last week the intense rally in bond markets helped mortgage rates reach their best levels of the year, but the rally came to an end on Friday.  Then on Friday evening, news the S&P downgraded the US Sovereign Debt Rating set a chain of events in motion that completely rocked the markets.  Despite steep losses in stocks and insane rallies in Treasuries, the Secondary Mortgage Market has been more of a bystander today, leaving Home Loan Borrowing Costs slightly better than Friday, but not as good as Thursday.

CURRENT MARKET*: The BestExecution 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.250%. Not many lenders are willing to offer 4.00% but 4.125% is available if you're willing to pay additional closing costs.  On FHA/VA 30 year fixed BestExecution is 4.00%. Fewer lenders willing to quote 3.875% (includes additional closing costs).  15 year fixed conventional loans are still best priced at 3.75% and we're still seeing aggressive quotes at 3.625%. Five year ARMs are still best priced at 3.25. ARMs and 15 year quotes seem to have bottomed out. 

It's important that we point out an increased amount of variation in what individual lenders are quoting as their BestExecution rates.  This is a factor of price volatility in the secondary mortgage market. Unfortunately when volatility picks up in the secondary mortgage market, the cost of doing business gets more expensive for lenders (hedging costs go up). Those added costs are usually passed down to consumers via extra margin in rate sheets.

GUIDANCE: We've realized a good portion of the rates rally we'd been holding out for.  And while things could still improve, it's an especially volatile time for the broader markets, meaning lenders have been slow to pass along gains.  Mortgage rates DO NOT like volatility and uncertainty.  Relative to various market levels, rate sheets are conservative yes, but there's no telling when things will get better, and sadly, always a chance that they won't get better at all.  Incidentally, we lean toward the possibility of them getting better, but the timing and flexibility required to capitalize on that possibility makes floating a less attractive choice for most scenarios right now, especially when what's on the table is already so much better than everything else 2011 has to offer and fairly darn close to all time low rates. 

CAUTION: MND guidance is speculative in nature. We don't have a crystal ball, we can't predict the future, we can only share our outlook. Making the following considerations extra important........................

What MUST be considered BEFORE one thinks about capitalizing on a rates rally?

   1. WHAT DO YOU NEED? Rates might not rally as much as you want/need.
   2. WHEN DO YOU NEED IT BY? Rates might not rally as fast as you want/need.
   3. HOW DO YOU HANDLE STRESS? Are you ready to make tough decisions?

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*BestExecution is the most cost efficient combination of note rate offered and points paid at closing. This note rate is determined based on the time it takes to recover the points you paid at closing (discount) vs. the monthly savings of permanently buying down your mortgage rate by 0.125%. When deciding on whether or not to pay points, the borrower must have an idea of how long they intend to keep their mortgage. For more info, ask you originator to explain the findings of their "breakeven analysis" on your permanent rate buy down costs.

*Important Mortgage Rate Disclaimer: The BestExecution loan pricing quotes shared above are generally seen as the more aggressive side of the primary mortgage market. Loan originators will only be able to offer these rates on conforming loan amounts to very well-qualified borrowers who have a middle FICO score over 740 and enough equity in their home to qualify for a refinance or a large enough savings to cover their down payment and closing costs.If the terms of your loan trigger any risk-based loan level pricing adjustments(LLPAs), your rate quote will be higher. If you do not fall into the"perfect borrower" category, make sure you ask your loan originator for an explanation of the characteristics that make your loan more expensive."No point" loan doesn't mean "no cost" loan. The best 30year fixed conventional/FHA/VA mortgage rates still include closing costs such as: third party fees + title charges + transfer and recording. Don't forget the fiscal frisking that comes along with the underwriting process

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